BitClout 101: A look at active Soccer (Football) Stars

BitClout 101: A look at active Soccer (Football) Stars

This is not investment advice. Do your own research.

After analyzing active NBA players, I wanted to evaluate soccer (or football outside of the US) players as that is a sport I have enjoyed watching for a long time as well. First, I want to welcome @paulpogba who verified his account yesterday! He is the first athlete superstar to verify his BitClout account to my knowledge, and I’m sure many more will follow in the upcoming weeks and months. He will definitely be sharing BitClout with his teammates so Fernandes, Rashford, and De Gea are ones to watch.

We again propose a score that combines the elements we are looking for in an investment: skills and value in the soccer arena, popularity on social media, and price on BitClout. For the Value department, I first used Transfermarkt which contains a database of all active athletes across major markets and their transfer values. Soccer/football is different from other sports in the US in that players have transfer fees when moving between clubs in the middle of their contracts that are paid by the acquiring team to the team the player is leaving. While the transfer value is highly dependent on the number of years left on the contract, the wage terms of that contract and the general stage of the athlete’s career he/she is in, I initially thought it was a great gauge of value just like BitClout is doing something similar in the Creator space. The problem is Messi and Ronaldo score really low for transfer values because they're older players and there isn't much time left in their current contract. Messi after his recent summer standstill with management stayed with Barcelona but he could leave for free (so a transfer fee of $0) this upcoming offseason. Ronaldo is in the second half of his career (but maybe that stage is much longer as he continues to transform his style of play to age well like Zlatan or Totti have done). So instead for value we use FIFA 21 ratings system to determine the skill metric of a player.

For simplicity we normalize the values and number of Twitter followers and take the geometric mean of the product for value score, and then divide by price for BitClout Value score, which is the price for each unit of value of the player. The highest players from this calculation will be the best ones to invest in:

A few quick observations:

Messi and Ronaldo are by far the best two players yet score low in the value department because (1) Messi doesn't have a Twitter following (it's not his personal account and he doesn't use social media) and (2) Ronaldo is already high-priced.

A lot of soccer players with millions of followers don't have reserved Twitter accounts but my friends @joyceinnyc and @_TomHoward have single-digit thousands of Twitter followers and are reserved. I think the BitClout platform is heavily skewed towards crypto personalities and this may be a rub down the road when for example @DaniCarvajal92, right-back for Real Madrid and the Spanish national team with four Champions League trophies, two La Liga titles and a Copa del Rey title wants to activate his account and realizes he's not pre-loaded.

Value Observations:

Grand Cru (200+ pts)

  1. Gerald Pique (@3gerardpique) 228 points, $908 price. Fun Fact: Pique, his partner Shakira, and I have the same birthday on Groundhog Day. Pique has seen his playing time reduced significantly this year and Barcelona are a shell of their previous selves even with a new coach in Koeman, but his twitter army of followers and relatively low price place him on the top of the value list.

Premium Cru (150-200 pts)

  1. Raphael Varane (@raphaelvarane) 185 pts, $622 price.  Another La Liga star on this list. Real Madrid mainstay in the back with his mate Sergio Ramos, champion in World Cup 2018 and winner of 4 Champions League titles and 3 La Liga titles.
  2. Thiago Alcantara (@Thiago6) 181 pts, $495 price. Another Champion, left the reigning Champions League holders Bayern Munich on a 20 million pound transfer to the previous UCL winners Liverpool FC and on the Spanish National team. Cerebral player who primarily plays Central Defensive Midfielder but can also play attacking midfielder. Fun Fact: his younger brother Rafinha plays for Paris Saint Germain and the Brazilian national team.
  3. Thibaut Courtois (@thibautcourtois) 170 pts, $447 price. The second Real Madrid star on this list who also represents the Belgium National team, one of the best goalkeepers in the game.
  4. Giorgio Chiellini (@chiellini) 165 pts, $446 price. Central defender for Juventus and the Italian National team, recipient of a bite from Luis Suarez in the 2014 World Cup Group Stage. Part of one of the best back threes in history in my opinion with Barzagli and Bonucci, crucial to the style of play Juventus plays.

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